JAKARTA FEBRUARY 8, 2008
DEFEAT FOR ISLAMIC PARTIES IN 2009 LIKELY: ANALYST
(RACHMAD YULIADI NASIR, rbacakoran at yahoo dot com)
INDEPENDENT-The weak leadership of Islamic parties and their ignorance of the principles of pluralism will lead them to defeat in the 2009 Legislative Election, said a political analyst.
Greg Fealy, a researcher from the School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University, said weak leadership could be seen in almost all Islamic parties, including the National Awakening Party (PKB), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), United Development Party (PPP) and National Mandate Party (PAN).
Fealy was speaking at a public lecture jointly held by the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) and Islamic Publishing House Mizan.
Yudi Latif from the Reform Institute and LIPI's senior political observer Syamsuddin Haris were also speakers at the event and Mizan launched Jejak Kafilah, the Indonesian translation of Fealy's Joining Caravan.
Fealy said PPP's chairman, Suryadharma Ali, was not regarded as an influential figure among the party's members themselves.
"This definitely will hinder the party from gaining many voters in the upcoming election," he said.
Fealy said the leadership problem was long-standing. He said PKB's patron Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid had always tended to take a dominant position in the party's decision-making processes.
"This is not good because this may be harmful to the democracy within the party itself," he said.
Fealy said PAN was another figure-centered party which relied too much on its current leader Sutrisno Bachir.
"The party will face an uncertain future as soon as Bachir retires."
Syamsuddin said PKS faced a similar problem because it leaned toward exclusivity, which would make it difficult to attract voters.
He cited the party's support of the anti-pornography bill with its massive rallies and demands for the government to approve it.
"PKS regards the bill as supporting Islamic values and fails to understand that a large segment of public sees it as curtailing freedom of expression in society," he said.
The Reform Institute's political analyst Yudi said despite dire predictions by his peers, Islamic parties would still have a chance to duplicate their strong showing in the 2004 election.
In 2004, Islamic parties took 38 percent of the vote in the legislative polls, up from 36 percent in 1999 legislative election.
"PKS could reach a higher percentage from its 2004 election result of 7.3 percent, if they can make use of the swing voters," Yudi said.
He said swing voters, who do not prioritize ideology, are the prime sources of new voters for all the Islamic parties.
Without them, the parties would simply be recycling voters and never gain a clear lead," he added.
